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Alternative Thinking: the firm’s published series. Data-driven readings of the private markets record, each built around one question.
The Slow-Motion Run on Private Credit
27 October 2026
Easing redemptions are a liquidity story, not a reputation verdict.
In the third quarter, investors asked non-traded BDCs for an estimated $9.6 billion back, a tenth of net asset value, according to Stanger. They received about 47 cents in the dollar. In February, a manager halted redemptions in its non-traded fund. Its listed BDC is down 20% this year. The firm is down 37%. Our data.
In the first quarter of 2026, investors took about $6.9 billion out of non-traded BDCs against $4.9 billion of gross sales, according to Stanger. It was the first quarter redemptions ran ahead of sales. The pressure did not stay in credit. After one fund cut its monthly cap, redemption requests at the other ten largest non-traded REITs rose an average of 65% in a month, according to Stanger.
The gates do the work of a bank run, one window at a time. Friday's Wall Street Journal reported lenders lending against gated shares.
A gate is remembered longer than a queue. Investors turned away price the manager differently at every mark after. The crisis is not survived when the requests slow. It is priced for years.
Investors who have been through a gate carry the lesson. Of the investors caught in the Woodford suspension, 77% said it damaged their trust, and 59% said the lesson was to trust a manager's reputation less, according to Research in Finance.
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64% of LPs say managers could give more transparency on when capital will be called and when distributions can be expected. Coller Capital, Global Private Capital Barometer, Summer 2026.
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